Sports Betting Charts: December 2013

Variables
P(Aw) = Probability of team A winning
P(d) = Probability of draw
P(Bw) = Probability of team B winning
P(A|1) = Probability of Team A winning by exactly 1 goal = 0.191856-0.30565416*x+1.42165*x^2-1.21885522*x^3, where x=P(Aw)
P(A|2) = Probability of Team A winning by exactly 2 goals = 0.13482-0.553848*x+1.71645*x^2-1.08417508*x^3, where x=P(Aw)
TO(A|X) = True decimal odds of team A with handicap X

True Odds, A^[1]
$TO(A|0)=\frac{1-P(d)}{P(Aw)}$
$TO(A|-0.25)=\frac{(1-\frac{P(d)}{2})}{P(Aw)}$
$TO(A|-0.50)=\frac{1}{P(Aw)}$
$TO(A|-0.75)=\frac{1-\frac{P(A|1)}{2}}{P(Aw)-\frac{P(A|1)}{2}}$
$TO(A|-1)=\frac{1-P(A|1)}{P(Aw)-P(A|1)}$
$TO(A|-1.25)=\frac{1-\frac{P(A|1)}{2}}{P(Aw)-P(A|1)}$
$TO(A|-1.5)=\frac{1}{P(Aw)-P(A|1)}$
$TO(A|-1.75)=\frac{1-\frac{P(A|2)}{2}}{P(A|1)-\frac{P(A|2)}{2}}$
$TO(A|-2)=\frac{1-P(A|2)}{P(Aw)-P(A|1)-P(A|2)}$

Notes and Sources
[1] To find true odds of Team B, use the following equation: 1-TO(A|X).

Sports Betting Charts

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Soccer - Converting 1x2 Moneyline Into Asian Handicap