P(Aw) = Probability of team A winning
P(d) = Probability of draw
P(Bw) = Probability of team B winning
P(A|1) = Probability of Team A winning by exactly 1 goal = 0.191856-0.30565416*x+1.42165*x^2-1.21885522*x^3, where x=P(Aw)
P(A|2) = Probability of Team A winning by exactly 2 goals = 0.13482-0.553848*x+1.71645*x^2-1.08417508*x^3, where x=P(Aw)
TO(A|X) = True decimal odds of team A with handicap X
True Odds, A[1]
Notes and Sources
[1] To find true odds of Team B, use the following equation: 1-TO(A|X).
I'm curious how you derived these equations. They don't include a game total, which affects the scoring distribution (the higher the total, the more likely a team is to win by more than one goal).
ReplyDeleteThe data was given to me by Mark Taylor of bettingexpert.com, and I used excel to make the trendline.
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DeleteThe formula P (A | 1). You put the number 1.42165 with 1.21885522 from where I do not understand these two.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand. 1-TO(A|X)
ReplyDeleteCan you please give me an example?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCan you understand the formula P (A | 1)? 1-TO (A | X) to find the probability and then take the formula to calculate the cleansing.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI find the probability already. But I do not know how to enter the recipe. How do I write equations? 1- to A | X
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DeleteYou teach how to think Formula P (A | 1) let me I think I can tell you.
DeleteI do not know how to enter the recipe. How do I write equations? 1- to A | X
Deleteช่วยทีครับ
Deleteสรุปพิมพ์สูตร1- to A | X ยังไงหรอครับ รบกวนบอกหน่อยครับ
Delete1- to A | X ทำยังไงครับ
DeleteP (aw) p(d). P(be)
DeleteYou have facebook
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DeleteHey bro , I interesting your Converter. But i don't know. how it's working? and How to Make excel table? Can u give example trendline for me? Thanks bro.
ReplyDelete[1] To find true odds of Team B, use the following equation: 1-TO(A|X)
ReplyDeletecan u give equation team B?
also me
DeleteReplace P(Aw) by P(Bw) in all equations. Want to chat with you to find true equation in AH -1.75.
Deletehi Phanas Taos
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DeleteWho can give me true odds of Team B equation ?? plz
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ReplyDeletePlease describe in detail this message. To find true odds of Team B, use the following equation: 1-TO(A|X) thank you
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ReplyDeleteI tried it already.
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ReplyDeleteได้ทีม B ยังครับ
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Delete1-TO(A|X) สมการนี้ยังไงครับ ทีม B
ReplyDeleteยากหน่อยครับ คนที่ได้ทีมBก็ไม่ยอมปล่อย งมกันต่อไป ผมก็เช่นกัน
Deleteได้ทีม B ถึงแค่ 0.5 เองใครได้มากกว่านี้ แชร์หน่อยครับ
Deleteขอสูตรทีม B บ้างสิค่ะ
DeleteTO(B|0)=
DeleteTO(B|-0.25)=
TO(B|-0.5)=
TO(B|-0.75)=
TO(B|-1)=
TO(B|-1.25)=
TO(B|-1.5)=
TO(B|-1.75)=
TO(B|-2)=
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มีใครห่าทีมB ได้บ้างแล้ว รบกวนช่วยกันโพสต์ให้ดูหน่อยครับ ได้ช่วยกันตรวจสอบว่าถูกต้องหรือไม่ ขอบคุณครับ
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DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteTO(A-1.75)=[1-P(Al2)/2] / [P(Aw)-P(Al1)-P(Al2)/2]
DeleteTO(B-0.00)=[1-P(d)] / P(Bw)
TO(B-0.25)=[1-P(d)/2] / [P(Bw)+P(d)/2]
TO(B-0.50)=1- / [P(Bw)+P(d)]
This comment has been removed by the author.
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ReplyDeleteto Moose Jester, i created an excel to use this formula but in AH -1.75 was error. How can be fix it?
ReplyDeleteI try again. and i find another way to calculate in AH -1.75.
ReplyDeletethere is: {1-P(A|2)/2}/{P(Aw)-P(A|1)-P(A|2)/2}
example: P(Aw)=39.2% Pd=28.4% so AH -1.75 is 8.06.
Is it true? Please tell me, thanks a lot.
TO(B|0)=
DeleteTO(B|-0.25)=
TO(B|-0.5)=
TO(B|-0.75)=
TO(B|-1)=
TO(B|-1.25)=
TO(B|-1.5)=
TO(B|-1.75)=
TO(B|-2)=
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ReplyDeleteขอสูตรทีมรองหน่อยค่ะ
ReplyDeleteTO(B|0)=
TO(B|-0.25)=
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